With weaker growth overseas and the drag from the stronger dollar now pushing exports lower, the resilience of consumption is the only thing keeping the economy from falling into recession.

The further falls in job openings and voluntary quits in October indicate that labour market conditions are continuing to ease gradually, which should keep downward pressure on wage growth.

Despite the recent resilience of the hard economic data, the most reliable forward-looking indicators suggest that a recession is unavoidable – our six-month ahead composite model puts the odds at...

Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising.