Our composite models suggest the economy was on track to fall into recession soon even before the impact of the banking turmoil feeds through. There also appears to be a lower, but rising, chance that...

The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly...

Narrow money growth has turned negative as savers have shifted out of bank deposits and into money market funds and bonds, which now offer significantly higher returns. Bank loan growth remains robust...

After an unexpectedly strong start to the year in January, which was mostly maintained in February, the March data will tell us whether that early strength was a temporary weather-related spike or a...