Kevin Warsh now begins his four-year term as Fed Chair, but the April price data suggest he will have a tough time persuading his FOMC colleagues that they should cut interest rates again in this...

While we are still waiting for full details on what was agreed at the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, it seems mostly just to have cemented the existing trade truce. This should ensure near...

In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at...

The combination of an increased focus on capital discipline among major oil firms, and a reduction in the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in recent years, will limit the extent and pace of any...