The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a...

Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s.

The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks...

Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central...