Judging by the bear markets of the past fifty years or so (see here), the valuation of the US stock market can make a big difference to how far it falls and how long it takes before it reaches a floor...

While some of the large shifts in the FX market over the past weeks may unwind if the coronavirus epidemic fades, we have revised some of our forecasts to reflect the sharp fall in US interest rates...

Although the US high-yield credit spread soared on Monday to its highest level in nearly four years, we don’t think that the US economy is bound to plunge into another deep recession.

If, as we expect, worst fears about the coronavirus outbreak don’t materialise, global stock markets will probably generally recover. However, we doubt that this will be the case for equities in...