Households appear to be making a concerted effort to hold safer assets. In fact, in the first quarter they bought more Treasuries than the Fed and overseas investors combined. Should foreign appetite...

The economy's recent performance looks better if we measure it using aggregated incomes rather than expenditures. Gross domestic income increased by 2.7% annualised in the first quarter, easily...

We are still assuming that Congress will agree to extend the bulk of the tax cuts due to expire at the end of the year and to postpone most of the automatic spending cuts set to take place early next...

Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is...