It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity...

Recent evidence on employment and construction spending has supported our view that a rebound in spending by State and local governments this year will offset some of the drag on GDP growth from a...

The Fed’s exit strategy is a work in progress that will be determined by the economic data and the evolution of the Fed’s thinking on the costs of unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policies. But we...

Last week brought a plethora of economic data which, on balance, indicated that second-quarter growth could be a little weaker than previously expected. We now estimate a modest 1.5% gain in real GDP...