Our latest calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as much as 3.5%. (We have raised our estimate from 3.0% on the back of the release of December's retail sales figures and November's...

Broad money growth continues to slow but, given the rebound in long-term interest rates over the past six months, we suspect that moderation reflects a waning speculative demand for money and is not a...

America will import fewer barrels of oil both this year and next but, while this will narrow the trade deficit a bit, it won’t provide a major boost to the economy.

The markets are happy to take the Fed at its word that it won't begin to raise rates until mid-2015 and will tighten only gradually after that, but we fear that rising wage and price inflation will...