The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in...

GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up...

Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the...

The bulk of the necessary deleveraging process, especially in the private sector, appears to have been completed. This means that when the Fed starts to raise interest rates in the middle of next year...