The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming. The same skewed pattern appears to have repeated itself this year too, with the 0.7% contraction in GDP...

The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is being depressed by declines in the administered prices set by Congress for Medicare and Medicaid. In contrast, the CPI measure, which covers only...

Broad money growth has slowed slightly, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure falling to a six-month low of 5.6% in April. More importantly, however, the growth rate of bank loans continues to...

This week we expect to learn that, rather than edging up by 0.2% annualised as the first estimate indicated, first-quarter GDP contracted by 0.7%. The principal reason for the revision is that net...