The projections made by Fed officials back in June indicated that they were setting a pretty low bar for hiking interest rates later this year. Nevertheless, despite those low expectations, officials...

After an unexpected surge at the end of the second quarter, inventories are shaping up to be the big wildcard in third-quarter GDP growth. We expect inventories to subtract 0.5% points, with third...

Last week the markets were very much focused on the potential for a stalling Chinese economy to “export” deflationary pressure to the US, either via the direct impact of a weaker renminbi or through...

The risk of a further market-driven slide in the Chinese renminbi and the renewed slump in global commodity prices, triggered by heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, probably won’t...