The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much...

Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite...

As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next...

Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech, which suggests that he can be a more statesmanlike President rather than the demagogue of the election campaign, has helped to reverse some of the...