The economic slowdown underway in China is perhaps the biggest external risk facing the US economy. However, growth would need to slow far more than we think is likely to knock the US recovery off...

The latest New York Fed report on consumer debt and credit made waves this week with the news that household debt surpassed its 2008 peak in dollar terms in the first quarter. But that is nothing to...

The recent weakness in core CPI inflation in March and April has forced us to revise down our inflation forecasts for the next couple of years. Even if the recent drop in the price of cell phone plans...

Almost every indicator suggests that US labour market conditions are the tightest they have been since the financial crisis, possibly even the tightest in decades. Nearly every sector is now operating...