The monetary aggregates reveal a divergence, with M2 growth slowing to a six-year low of 5.0% in October, while growth in our M3 measure accelerated to a two-and-a-half-year high of 6.1%. As short...

The flattening of the yield curve over the past couple of months is not a signal that a recession is on the way. Instead, it is mainly due to a drop back in the term premium on longer-dated bonds...

Households’ balance sheets are in good shape; debt as a share of income has remained stable, net wealth is at a record high, and debt service costs are below their long-run average. However, the...

The Republicans appear to be making reasonable progress on tax reform but, with several key challenges yet to be resolved, there is still a long way to go before a final bill is ready for President...