With the effective fed funds rate getting close to the top of its target range again, there’s a good chance that the Fed will combine a 25bp hike in the fed funds target range in December with another...

The recent slump in stock markets is hard to square with the 3.5% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP that follows an even more impressive 4.2% rise in the second. Looking at the details of that...

Although narrow money growth rebounded in September, the Fed’s quantitative tightening will continue to exert downward pressure over the months ahead. Furthermore, signs are emerging that the Fed’s...

Data next week are likely to show GDP growth slowing to 3.3% annualised in the third quarter. That would still be well above the economy’s potential growth rate but, looking under the hood, there are...