The Fed hiked the fed funds target range by 25bp today, to between 2.25% and 2.50%, as most still expected, but tempered the move by slightly revising down Fed officials' projections for additional...

A partial government shutdown this Friday would probably have only a modest impact on the economy. With the current gridlock only likely to intensify once the Democrats assume control of the House...

As the fiscal stimulus fades and the lagged impact of monetary tightening intensifies, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and only 1.2% in 2020. Markets apparently believe...

The big market moves over the past week – with stock markets and bond yields both falling sharply – present something of a dilemma for our own views. We have long expected an economic slowdown in 2019...