We are sceptical that the decline in initial jobless claims to a 50-year low is providing a reliable guide to current labour market conditions. In recent years, a number of states have made it more...

A surge in business inventories appears to have boosted first-quarter GDP, but the now elevated inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that inventories will be a drag over the remainder of this year, which...

The economy is still in stronger shape than it usually was when the Fed started cutting interest rates in the past. Based on the Fed’s previous behaviour, however, the economic slowdown that we expect...

The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC...