The Fed is now leaning towards lower interest rates later this year, but we still believe that the first rate cut will be delayed until September, with another 25bp reduction coming in December and...

The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC...

This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2...

The impact on prices of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports would be partly offset by a sharp drop in the peso. But the potential disruption to the motor vehicle industry, which relies on a continued flow...