The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary...

Global growth is likely to remain well below its pre-crisis average for at least the next couple of years. However, while prospects for the euro-zone have gone from bad to worse, the outlook for the...

It would be unusual for inflation pressures to be building in some advanced economies and falling in others. Nonetheless, this is exactly what we expect to happen in the next year or two, as US...

Although they have their drawbacks, business surveys – such as those published by Markit – are the most reliable guide to the state of global economic activity. The fact that they continue to point to...