Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that activity has picked up a bit in the euro-zone and remained solid in the US. However, the Greek crisis poses a growing threat to the outlook.

If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global...

The drop in global oil prices since mid-2014 will push many advanced economies into deflation, but the trough will vary considerably between economies. And while inflation should rebound rapidly in...

Although real household incomes among net consumers have been boosted by the fall in oil prices, this has yet to translate into a surge in spending. But we still expect consumption in advanced...