It is often claimed that the current expansion has lasted so long that a recession must be just around the corner. But history suggests that there is no such hard-and-fast rule.

Despite the criticisms levelled at them over the past year, central banks are not likely to be stripped of their independence anytime soon, or have their mandates radically changed. Politicians who...

The slowdown in China which now appears to be underway may prompt periodic bouts of nerves in financial and commodity markets. But we expect China’s growth rate to slow only gradually, rather than to...

Despite the dip in survey data in April, global manufacturing conditions are still in good shape. We expect world GDP growth to rebound in Q2 following a weak first quarter.