Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell by the most in two years in March, providing further evidence that global growth has passed its peak. Nonetheless, the PMI remains at a high level and we think...

The recent weakness of some economic data, business surveys and equity markets has raised fears that the global expansion is now fizzling out. We think that China will slow later this year and the US...

An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of...

An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of...