Preliminary business surveys for May, published by Markit today, suggest that the moderate slowdown in economic growth may have continued in the second quarter, at least in the euro-zone and Japan.

The slowdown in advanced economies in Q1 was partly a result of weak consumption growth. But we think that household spending will recover in Q2 and grow at a decent pace during the rest of 2018.

Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external...

Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is...