The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has remained relatively resilient in the wake of US tariffs and that the outlook has improved slightly. Meanwhile, goods price pressures have softened...

Big budget deficits are fuelling fears about fiscal sustainability, but the potential negative effects on growth are receiving less attention. While Germany is embarking on a major fiscal expansion...

We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to...

Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent...