The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only...

Preliminary business surveys for August point to a further loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector, but the composite surveys suggest that GDP growth is holding up reasonably well. Meanwhile...

Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy...

Even if emerging market assets remain under pressure this year, we don’t expect the crises in Argentina and Turkey to be replicated in other emerging economies. Meanwhile, domestic conditions in the...