This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on...

This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on...

Markit’s flash PMIs ended the year on a weak note, signalling the start of a US slowdown and pointing to weaker world trade growth at the beginning of 2019, despite the US-China truce on tariffs.

The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the...