One of the biggest upside risks to our forecasts is that households spend the extra savings that they have accumulated during the past few months. If they do, North America and the UK look likely to...

In Q3, the balance sheets of developed market banks were in good shape and credit losses stayed ultra-low. Defaults are likely to rise as policy support recedes, but we think the banks are well-placed...

The global manufacturing PMI rose for the seventh consecutive month in November. Restrictions seem to have weighed on industry in parts of Europe, but nowhere near as much as in March and April. And...

While a difficult few months lie ahead for many economies, the news of effective vaccines has led us to revise up our world GDP growth forecast by 0.8%-pt and 0.5%-pt, to 6.8% and 4.6%, in 2021 and...