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Global Economics Focus Do inflation expectations matter? We have long been sceptical of the conventional view that inflation expectations have been an important determinant of inflation in advanced economies. At the same time, though, we doubt that... 1st November 2021 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Services left to do the heavy lifting The flash PMIs for October brought news of an encouraging start to Q4 for services sector activity, alongside yet more evidence that shortages are holding back growth in industry and stoking even... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices won’t stop inflation falling next year The recent upward revision to our oil price forecast does little to alter our view that inflation will fall in 2022. Even if oil prices don’t fall as we expect them to and they stay at their current... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the pandemic permanently reduced the workforce? The pandemic is still depressing the size of the labour force in many developed countries. This probably reflects a mixture of temporary and permanent factors, so some of it may yet be reversed. But... 19th October 2021 · 5 mins read