In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at...

Inflation data for April released across EMs suggest that the energy price shock has pushed fuel inflation up materially and that surveys of firms’ inflation expectations are rising sharply. So far...

April’s stronger-than-expected PPI figures have little bearing on our estimate for a 0.30% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in April. While still above the target-consistent pace, that is not as...

Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude...