The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on...

The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift...

Although the recent weakness in exports from China suggest that a sharp rebound in global goods trade probably isn’t on the cards, we still expect global trade to rise this year after a very weak 2023...

Shutdowns at major carmakers were a key reason behind the likely plunge in GDP last quarter, but with production now having been resumed, a strong rebound in activity is on the cards. Meanwhile, the...