The Argentine peso’s overvaluation is becoming an increasing point of concern and attention has shifted to whether the Milei administration will lift capital controls. We think that some form of...

The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for...

The small fall in services inflation in July is probably just enough for a September rate cut to remain the base case. But with underlying price pressures still high, the decision will be a close call...

We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or...