The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying...

We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided...

The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose...

When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that...