We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession –...

The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think...

June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing...

June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the...