Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end.

Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital...

The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in July paves the way for Banxico to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut, to 7.75%, at its meeting later today.

Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish...