The past two weeks have boosted our confidence in our long-held forecasts that inflation and interest rates will fall further than most expect next year. And while September’s surprisingly soft...

The downside surprise to core CPI prices in September should make the Fed feel even more comfortable with its likely decision to cut interest rates next week, and presents a risk to our view that the...

The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.9% y/y in mid-October, is unlikely to materially change the central bank’s hawkish tone. The start of an easing cycle is approaching, but it’s likely to be...

Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the...