The further rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% y/y in January, combined with the surge in oil prices, pretty much rule out the chance of a 25bp cut at Banxico’s next meeting on 26th March.

The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year.

CPI inflation recovered last month, thanks to temporary factors such as an easing of oil price deflation and volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. Tensions in the Middle East...