The Fed will still hike its policy rate by 50bp tomorrow and the new projections could show the peak in rates above 5%, but the 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in November provides strong...

The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession.

The real returns from both US equities and 10-year Treasuries have often been quite good in the couple of years after past peaks in core inflation in the US, but the period following peak inflation in...