Global inflation looks set to undershoot consensus forecasts, amid falling commodity prices, cooling labour markets, and an absence of inflationary spillovers from tariffs. In the US, we expect core...

The idea that the Fed could pave the way for much lower policy rates by shrinking its balance sheet is unconvincing. Balance sheet reduction is a blunt tool for tightening financial conditions, and...

Concerns about a stock market bubble are unlikely to dictate central banks’ interest rate decisions in the near term. It’s difficult to call a bubble and even harder to manipulate stock markets...

We expect global inflation to hover around 2.5% in the year ahead but there will be significant differences between economies. Goods inflation has a bit further to rise in the US which, coupled with...