Today’s fiscal announcement is another disappointment for those expecting substantial stimulus.

Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The...

Export values grew y/y at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too. We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months – any drag from potential Trump tariffs may...

The NPC standing committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its meeting next week. A large proportion will likely be used to tackle local government debt, but it's unclear how much (if any) will...