Bank loan growth accelerated for the first time in over two years last month, helping to take broad credit growth to a 10-month high. While some further gains are likely, we still expect a more modest...

The fact that the Chinese authorities have once again matched US tariff hikes suggests that they are in no rush to negotiate with the Trump administration. They’ve said that they won’t hike tariffs...

President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other...

Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce...