The renminbi has been allowed to strengthen by 0.5% against the dollar so far this month. A rebounding trade surplus will, in our view, force the People’s Bank to tolerate further gains in the months...

Business and household confidence in China took a turn for the worse this quarter, but it is not at an alarmingly low level. Meanwhile, banks are reporting a decline in loan demand, particularly from...

The foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank would be of little use in the event of a debt or banking crisis in China. The bulk of the costs of any clean-up would ultimately still be paid by the...

Tracking the stance of the People’s Bank has become more difficult as it has brought a large number of policy tools into play. But the consistent goal appears to be to stabilise credit growth.