The debate about China’s economic outlook hinges on what caused growth to slow early in 2015. One of the main culprits, in our view, was fiscal policy, which tightened significantly in late-2014 and...

The main significance of today’s announcement by the People’s Bank (PBOC) that it is cutting standing lending facility (SLF) interest rates is that it is experimenting with a new monetary policy...

The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets. The implicit endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve asset is unlikely to sway the...

Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst...