The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows global trade picked up in August, but that the pace of recovery has already slowed sharply this year. We believe trade growth will ease further in coming months and...

The initially strong rebound in the world economy is fading as structural weaknesses come to the fore again. Many countries, particularly in the West, need to reduce debt. But others with stronger...

Last night Brazil’s Finance Minister reportedly warned of a global “currency war”. We think direct currency intervention by policymakers in the major western developed economies at least is very...

Rising food prices will put some further upward pressure on headline inflation in the US and Europe, but the impact should be smaller than during the 2007/08 shock, and just as temporary. The picture...