The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will...

Market expectations for policy rates have diverged in the past few weeks. The Bank of England suggested that its first rate hike could take place sooner than previously anticipated. Expectations for...

We would be wary of assertions that there is a single “magic number” for the oil price beyond which the world economy enters a danger zone. Nonetheless, global growth has been sluggish ever since...

The growing likelihood that the first interest rate hikes will come earlier than previously anticipated will probably have far bigger implications for financial markets than for economic prospects. In...