There is a widespread view that the world is in a period of “reflation” in which both economic activity and inflation are picking up. But there is little or no evidence of a sustained increase in...

It is often claimed that the current expansion has lasted so long that a recession must be just around the corner. But history suggests that there is no such hard-and-fast rule.

The slowdown in China which now appears to be underway may prompt periodic bouts of nerves in financial and commodity markets. But we expect China’s growth rate to slow only gradually, rather than to...

Despite the dip in survey data in April, global manufacturing conditions are still in good shape. We expect world GDP growth to rebound in Q2 following a weak first quarter.