Consumer confidence in advanced economies has reached its second highest level since 2001. This suggests that consumption growth will hold up well despite subdued real income growth.

In recent years, policy rates in advanced economies have been set much lower than the levels implied by John Taylor’s original rule, which he formulated in the early 1990s. But once we account for the...

Although the minutes of the Fed’s and ECB’s latest policy meetings are consistent with our view that their unconventional policy support will be scaled back in Q4 and early next year, respectively...

Although data released today showed that core CPI inflation remained weak in the US in July, we still think that it will pick up substantially next year. Outside the US, however, it will probably rise...