Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which...

Credit growth in advanced economies is likely to maintain a healthy pace despite quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, the recent spike in Italian government bond yields may increase firms’ borrowing...

Preliminary Markit PMIs provide tentative evidence that the euro-zone economy will lag behind advanced-economy peers in Q4, as growth holds up better in the US and Japan.

The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years.