We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with...

The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this...

May’s drop in the global manufacturing PMI to below the “no change” level of 50 suggests that the industrial downturn has further to run, with the once resilient US economy succumbing to the malaise.

Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has secured another stunning victory in India’s general election. The key priority for Mr Modi in his second term should be to implement reforms to develop the manufacturing...