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China economic outlook: Cyclical trough, tepid rebound

The Chinese economy will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction, though policy support should provide some limited improvement later, our Q1 China economy outlook says. Our latest China economy predictions include how government stimulus will lead to only a muted rebound in activity in the second half. The report's key themes include:

  • Our proprietary China Activity Proxy versus official GDP growth measures;
  • Why monetary policy will be eased further – but credit growth will see only a modest pick-up;
  • Why developers will remain under pressure with fiscal stimulus providing only partial offset.

Download the latest complimentary copy of this report to read our latest China economy projections.