Bank of Canada Watch Little reason for Bank to cheer at start of New Year With the sudden slump in oil prices over the last three months likely to weigh heavily on economic growth, and fears of a global downturn building, we expect the Bank to keep rates unchanged and... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to present cautious message as oil prices slump We suspect that the Bank of Canada will deliver a more dovish message next week than investors seem to expect. 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to hike as trade uncertainty lifted The markets are convinced that the Bank of Canada will hike its overnight rate by another 25bp to 1.75% at next week’s policy meeting and it isn’t hard to see why. Economic growth has been solid this... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set to raise rates despite growing risks Despite a host of negative developments since the Bank of Canada signalled in May that an interest rate rise was imminent, policymakers still seem eager to raise rates. While we now expect the Bank to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the side lines Although first-quarter GDP growth appears to have been stronger than the Bank of Canada assumed back in April, we don’t expect it to signal another rate hike is imminent at next week’s policy meeting... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Housing woes to keep Bank on the side lines The Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates again at its Governing Council meeting next Wednesday. Even with the risk of NAFTA’s demise fading and core inflation picking up, there is now a... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rate tightening cycle likely to be cut short The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again this year, most likely at the April policy meeting. In contrast to the consensus, we don’t see a series of further rate hikes beyond this. NAFTA’s... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank could hike interest rates again as soon as next week The Bank of Canada will increase interest rates again early this year, possibly as soon as next week, particularly after learning that businesses are more optimistic. That said, we still believe... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank already starting to regret rate hikes The Bank of Canada will leave interest rates at 1.00% at its policy rate meeting next week and, by putting emphasis on the uncertainties clouding the outlook, will signal that it isn’t contemplating... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada will probably err on the side of caution at its policy meeting next week by deciding to keep interest rates at 1.00%. Although the Bank still seems confident in the economy, NAFTA... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Don’t rule out an interest rate hike next week The incoming economic data have been generally strong and will encourage the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates further to 1.00%, from 0.75%, before the end of this year. We wouldn’t rule out a... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to keep interest rates at 0.50% The Bank of Canada’s new-found optimism in the economy means that there is a risk it could raise interest rates very soon, but we don’t think a rate hike next week to 0.75%, from 0.50%, is a foregone... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to sound more cautious on economic outlook While the Bank of Canada will likely hold interest rates at 0.50% next week, the balance of risks around its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook are beginning to tilt to the downside, mainly... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to remain cautious about growth outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at 0.50% next week and to remain neutral on the direction of interest rates in the near future. Despite economic slack and muted core inflation... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank won’t move on interest rates for a while longer We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy interest rate at 0.50% next week. Although core inflation and wage growth have slowed, activity and business confidence data have been more positive... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read